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UNIVERSITY  OF  ILLINOIS 

Agricultural  Experiment  Station 


BULLETIN  No.  183 


PRICES  AND   SHRINKAGE  OF  FARM  GRAINS 


BY  W.  L.  BUELISON  AND  O.  M.  ALLYN 


URBANA,  ILLINOIS,  NOVEMBER,  1915 


SUMMARY  OP  BULLETIN  No.  183 

1.  Prices   of  farm   crops   in   general   are   regulated  by   commercial  market 
quotations,  which  in  turn  are  governed  by  supply  and  demand.  Page  13 

2.  The  increase  in  prices  of  crops  within  the  last  few  decades  has  not  been 
so  great  as  many  people  have  believed.     By  comparing  the  average  prices  for  the 
fifteen  years  preceding  the  financial  crisis  of  1894  to  1898,  with  the  average  prices 
for  the  fifteen  years  succeeding  this  period,  it  will  be  seen  that  the  average  in- 
crease has  been  only  9.2  cents  per  bushel  for  corn  and  6.5  cents  for  oats,  while 
the  average  price  for  wheat  has  not  increased.     The  price  for  barley  has  tended 
to  decrease,  while  the  price  for  rye  has  increased  about  the  same  as  that  for  corn. 

Page  14 

3.  In  general,  for  the  last  thirty  years  the  times  of  lowest  average  price  for 
corn,  wheat,  and  oats  correspond  closely  to  the  times  of  largest  average  receipts. 
Except  during  the  summer  months,  the  same  is  true  for  rye,  and  also  for  barley 
during  the  last  ten  years.  Pages  16-21 

4.  Shrinkage  is  one  of  the  most  important  factors  to  be  taken  into  con- 
sideration in  holding  corn  for  higher  prices.     The  total  shrinkage   during  the 
year  is  more  than  15  percent.     Taking  November  as  a  base,  the  data  show  that 
there  is  no  month  for  which  the  price  increases  sufficiently  to  compensate  for 
shrinkage.     If  January  or  February  is  taken  as  a  base,  then  the  increase  in  price, 
up  to  but  not  including  October,  more  than  compensates  for  shrinkage  alone. 

Page  21 

5.  Not  so  much  is  known  of  the  shrinkage  of  wheat  and  oats  as  of  corn. 
It  may  be  said  that  they  shrink  comparatively  little  after  they  have  gone  thoroly 
thru  the  sweat.    It  would  seem  profitable,  so  far  as  shrinkage  alone  is  concerned, 
to  hold  small  grain  until  the  time  of  highest  prices.  Page  24 


PRICES  AND  SHRINKAGE  OF   FARM   GRAINS 

BY  W.  L.  BUELISON,  ASSOCIATE  CHIEF  IN  CROP  PRODUCTION,  AND 
O.  M.  ALLYN,  FIRST  ASSISTANT  IN  CROP  PRODUCTION 

When  is  the  best  time  to  sell  my  crop?  Will  I  make  more  by 
holding  my  grain,  expecting  later  a  price  which  will  more  than  com- 
pensate for  the  shrinkage  which  will  occur  during  the  intervening 
period,  or  will  it  be  more  profitable  to  sell  my  corn  from  the  field 
and  my  small  grain  froir  the  threshing  machine?  These  are  ques- 
tions which  are  coming  up  continually,  and  which  have  called  for  the 
issuance  of  this  bulletin.  In  the  handling  of  farm  grains,  especially 
corn,  shrinkage  plays  an  important  role,  and  the  shrinkage  factor 
should  always  be  considered  when  the  producer  is  holding  his  grains 
for  higher  prices. 

The  facts  relating  to  the  problem,  so  far  as  they  are  available,  are 
herein  presented.  These  facts  should  prove  a  valuable  guide;  how- 
ever, because  of  the  nature  of  the  subject,  the  element  of  chance  is 
always  involved,  and  the  individual  farmer  must  make  the  final  de- 
cision as  to  the  time  to  sell. 

It  is  probable  that  the  average  price  of  farm  crops  for  a  ten-year 
period  will  represent  what  the  farmer  may  expect  for  his  commodi- 
ties under  normal  conditions.  The  reports  of  the  Chicago  board  of 
trade  are  the  most  complete  of  any  in  America,  and  should  be  very 
reliable,  for  Chicago  is  the  largest  and  probably  the  most  important 
grain  market  in  the  United  States.  Since  Chicago  is  the  controlling 
market  for  Illinois,  the  price  calculations  reported  in  this  bulletin  are 
based  on  the  reports  of  the  Chicago  board  of  trade.1  Figures  for  1914 
have  been  eliminated  because  of  abnormal  prices  due  to  the  European 
war. 

Prices  of  farm  crops  in  general  are  regulated  by  commercial  market 
quotations,  which  in  turn  are  governed  normally  by  supply  and  de- 
mand. Thru  the  boards  of  trade  or  exchanges,  the  large  commercial 
grain  and  provision  markets  report  the  daily  quotations  for  all  kinds 
of  farm  produce  and  these  reports  are  sent  over  the  country  by 
wire  and  by  mail.  It  is  upon  these  quotations  that  the  local  grain 
dealers  and  elevator  managers  depend  in  giving  local  prices  to  the 
farmer. 

In  estimating  the  price  which  he  may  receive,  the  grower  should 
keep  in  mind  that  the  local  grain  dealer  must  pay  less  for  crops  than 
for  standard  grade  only  used. 
13 


14 


BULLETIN  No.  183 


[November, 


the  large  commercial  markets,  such  as  Chicago  or  St.  Louis.  The 
main  factors  which  the  local  dealer  considers  in  the  management  of 
his  business  are  the  following: 

1.  Working  capital  and  interest  on  money  invested 

2.  Maintenance  and  running  expenses 

3.  Salary  of  operator 

4.  Insurance  on  elevator  and  contents 

5.  Freight  to  terminal  markets 

6.  Shrinkage 

7.  Inspection,  switching  charges,  and  weighing  commission 

8.  Insurance  and  storage  at  terminal  market 

These  items  are  so  variable  that  it  is  well  nigh  impossible  to  cite 
a  figure  which  might  give  the  farmer  a  safe  basis  upon  which  to  esti- 
mate farm  prices.  Dealers  must  buy  on  a  margin  which  will  enable 
them  to  handle  profitably  the  different  crops.  Usually  the  dealer's 
working  margin  is  not  exorbitant,  but  is  fairly  uniform  for  a  given 
locality,  and  much  confidence  can  be  placed  in  the  relative  prices 
quoted  by  the  local  dealer  and  the  large  terminal  markets. 

There  seems  to  be  a  feeling  among  farmers  that  the  prices  of  crops 
have  increased  very  materially  within  the  last  few  decades.  Table  1 
gives  the  average  price1  of  corn,  wheat,  and  oats  in  five-year  periods 

TABLE  1. — AVERAGE  PRICE  OF  FARM  GRAINS,  BY  FIVE-YEAR  PERIODS,  FROM  1879 

TO  1913 
(Cents  per  bushel) 


Crop 

1879 
to 
1883 

1884 
to 
1888 

1889 
to 
1893 

1894 
to 
1898 

1899 
to 
1903 

1904 
to 
1908 

1909 
to 
1913 

General 
average 

Corn  

48.7 

43.1 

43.0 

33  2 

45.5 

53.7 

632 

47  2 

Wheat  

106.7 

81.6 

83.4 

69.5 

73.4 

93.3 

105.1 

87.6 

Oats  

33.5 

27.9 

30.0 

23.2 

30.6 

39.1 

414 

322 

Barley 

62.31 

63  6 

40  9 

48  8 

555 

742 

57  7 

Eve.  . 

56.12 

59.5 

44.0 

53.3 

71.5 

77.9 

60.4 

Prices  for  1884  and  1888  are  not  reported  in  full. 
3Prices  for  1884  are  not  reported  in  full. 

TABLE  2. — AVERAGE  PRICE  OF  FARM  GRAINS,  BY  FIFTEEN-YEAR  PERIODS 
(Cents  per  bushel) 


Crop 

1879   to    1893 

1899  to  1913 

Increase    in    price 
for     1899-1913 
over  1879-1893 

Corn                  

44.9 

54.1 

92 

Wheat    

90.6 

90.6 

0.0 

Oats    

30.5 

37.0 

65 

Barley    

63.01 

59.5 

(-3.5) 

Eve   . 

58.01 

67.8 

9.8 

Averages  for  1884  to  1893.     See  also  footnotes  to  Table  1. 


*A11  price  averages  reported  in  this  bulletin  are  based  upon  daily  averages 
made  up  of  the  lowest  and  highest  daily  wholesale  market  prices.  The  data  in- 
volve more  than  175,000  calculations. 


1915] 


PRICES  AND  SHRINKAGE  OF  FARM  GRAINS 


15 


for  the  past  thirty-five  years1  and  for  barley  and  rye  as  far  back  as 
figures  are  available  in  the  trade  reports.  A  hasty  inspection  of  this 
table  might  seem  to  confirm  this  impression.  However,  the  actual  ad- 
vance has  not  in  reality  been  so  great  as  might  appear.  The  years 
covered  by  the  statistics  include  a  period  of  great  business  depression. 
In  fact,  the  first  five-year  period,  that  from  1879  to  1883,  just  pre- 
ceded a  decided  reduction  in  prices.  By  another  sudden  decrease, 
prices  reached  their  lowest  limit  in  the  period  1894  to  1898.  Since  that 
time,  there  has  been  a  steady  increase. 

A  better  conception  of  the  actual  advance  in  prices  may  be  ob- 
tained by  comparing  the  average  prices  for  the  fifteen  years  preced- 
ing the  financial  crisis  of  1894  to  1898  with  the  average  prices  for  the 
fifteen  years  succeeding  this  period.  These  figures  are  given  in  Table 
2  in  full  for  corn,  wheat,  and  oats,  and  for  a  part  of  this  period  for 
barley  and  rye.  Comparing  prices  on  this  basis,  it  will  be  seen  that 
the  average  increase  has  been  only  9.2  cents  per  bushel  for  corn,  and 
6.5  cents  for  oats,  while  the  average  price  for  wheat  has  not  increased. 
The  tendency  for  the  price  of  barley  has  been  to  decrease,  while  rye 
has  increased  about  the  same  as  corn. 

The  relative  prices  for  the  different  months  of  the  year  require 
further  discussion.  Table  3,  which  follows,  gives  this  information  for 
corn,  wheat,  oats,  barley,  and  rye  on  the  Chicago  market.  The  actual 
farm  price  of  crops  varies  so  greatly  with  local  conditions  that  it  is 
impossible  to  establish  a  uniform  farm  price  for  Illinois. 


TABLE  3. — AVERAGE  PRICE  OF  FARM  GRAINS  FOR  THE  TEN-YEAR  PERIOD  1904-1913 

(Cents  per  bushel) 


Month 

Corn 

Wheat 

Oats 

Barley 

Rye 

January    

52.0 

100.1 

39.5 

67.2 

74.0 

February    

52.5 

100.9 

40.9 

66.1 

752 

March   

54.4 

100.7 

40.9 

67.4 

75.8 

April   

57.2 

101  5 

41.7 

67.1 

765 

May    

00.3 

106  3 

43.4 

67.3 

79.4 

June    

60.3 

103  4 

43.4 

64.4 

76.6 

July  

62.1 

95  2 

42.8 

61.5 

73.2 

August    

64.2 

92  3 

37.8 

60.2 

71.0 

September    

63.6 

95  6 

386 

63.9 

73.1 

October  

60.5 

98  4 

38.0 

63.8 

75.0 

November  

58.3 

97  4 

37  6 

64.3 

73.8 

December    

55.7 

98  8 

38.6 

65.6 

73.3 

Averaere    . 

58.4 

99.2 

40.3 

64.9 

74.7 

JSpecie  payment  was  resumed  January  1,  1879,  previous  to  which  time  prices 
are  not  comparable,  because  of  the  depreciated  currency. 


16 


BULLETIN  No.  183 


[November, 


In  considering  the  best  time  of  the  year  to  market  his  crops,  the 
farmer  should  bear  in  mind  that  his  margin  of  profit  depends  upon 
net  prices,  not  gross,  and  that  the  highest  gross  price  per  bushel  or 
per  ton  does  not  necessarily  mean  the  most  profitable  one.  The  factors 
which  should  be  balanced  against  the  advance  in  price  from  month 
to  month  over  the  price  at  harvest  time  are  interest,  shrinkage,  storage, 
and  extra  cost  of  handling,  which  factors,  with  the  possible  exception 
of  shrinkage,  will  have  to  be  determined  by  the  farmer  himself. 

The  monthly  price  averages  for  farm  grains,  shown  in  Table  3, 
together  with  the  monthly  percentages  of  total  annual  receipts,  for  the 


64 
62 
60 
58 
56 
54 
52 
50 
48 
46 
44 
42 
40 
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FIG.  1. — Corn:  Average  Monthly  Price  and  Average  Monthly  Percentage  of 
Total  Annual  Receipts  for  the  Ten  Years  1904-1913;  also  Price  and  Percentage 
Receipts  for  the  Previous  Twenty  Years 


1915] 


PRICES  AND  SHRINKAGE  OF  FARM  GRAINS 


17 


106 

104 

/ 

X 

102 

/ 

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100 
98 
96 
94 
92 
90 
88 
86 
84 
82 
80 
78 
76 
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PRICE 
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S  BY  MONTHS.  1904  to  19 
S  BY  MONTHS.  1884  to  19 
PTS  BY  MONTHS.  1904  to 
PTS  BY  MONTHS.  1884  to 

3 
33 
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1903 

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26 
25 
24 

23 

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FIG.  2.— Wheat:  Average  Monthly  Price  and  Average  Monthly  Percentage  of 
Total  Annual  Eeceipts  for  the  Ten  Years  1904-1913;  also  Price  and  Percentage 
Receipts  for  the  Previous  Twenty  Years 


18 


BULLETIN  No.  183 


[November, 


decade  1904  to  1913,  on  the  basis  of  the  Chicago  market,  are  repre- 
sented by  the  accompanying  curves  and  graphs.  For  the  sake  of  com- 
parison, prices  and  receipts  for  the  twenty-year  period  preceding  1904 
are  also  presented.  The  curves  will  help  to  fix  in  mind  the  months 
of  highest  and  lowest  prices,  and  the  graphs  are  included  for  the  pur- 
pose of  studying  the  relation  between  the  monthly  supply  and  price. 
The  lowest  price  for  corn,  based  on  an  average  of  the  ten  years 
1904-1913,  for  the  Chicago  market,  was  in  January ;  the  highest  was 
in  August.  During  the  months  of  May  and  June,  the  price  was  sta- 
tionary. After  August,  the  price  declined  rather  rapidly  until  Janu- 
ary. Beginning  with  January,  and  except  during  May  and  June,  the 
price  advanced  until  August  at  about  the  same  rate  as  it  had  pre- 
viously declined. 


43 
41 
39 
37 
35 
33 
31 
29 
27 

2.5 



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RICES  B 
RICES  B 
ECEIPTS 
ECEIPTS 

r  MONTH 
V  MONTH 
BY  MON 
BYMON 

S.  1904  t 
S,  1884  t 
THS.  190 
THS.  188 

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1  to  1903. 

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FIG.  3. — Oats:  Average  Monthly  Price  and  Average  Monthly  Percentage  of 
Total  Annual  Eeceipts  for  the  Ten  Years  1904-1913;  also  Price  and  Percentage 
Receipts  for  the  Previous  Twenty  Years 


1915] 


PRICES  AND  SHRINKAGE  OP  FARM  GRAINS 


The  monthly  percentage  of  the  total  annual  receipts  for  the  same 
ten-year  period  declined  gradually  from  January  to  April,  and  in- 
creased in  May  and  June.  From  July  to  November  the  receipts  were 
somewhat  low,  except  for  September,  but  they  were  higher  from 
December  to  March.  They  were  almost  as  great  in  September  as  in 
June,  the  month  of  highest  percentage  receipts. 


67 
66 
65 
64 
63 
62 

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-- 

PRICES  BY  MONTHS,  1904  to  1913 
PRICES  BY  MONTHS,  1885  to  1903,  Excluding  1888 
RECEIPTS  BY  MONTHS.  1904  to  1913 
RECEIPTS  BY  MONTHS,  1884  to  1903 

rf    58 
5    57 

'    56 
t    55 
3    54 
£    53 
52 
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50 
49 
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FIG.  4. — Barley:  Average  Monthly  Price  and  Average  Monthly  Percentage  of 
Total  Annual  Eeceipts  for  the  Ten  Years  1904-1913;  also  Price  for  the  Previous 
Nineteen  Years  (Excepting  1888)  and  Percentage  Eeceipts  for  the  Previous  Twenty 
Years 


20 


BULLETIN  No.  183 


[November, 


It  must  be  evident  that  if  the  average  price  of  corn  did  not  in- 
crease from  January  to  August,  the  farmer  would  lose  to  the  extent 
of  the  shrinkage  on  all  corn  held.  Whether  the  advance  in  the  market 
price  between  the  time  of  cribbing  and  the  time  of  marketing  is  suffi- 
cient to  compensate  fully  for  the  shrinkage  which  occurs,  is  another 
question,  which  will  be  considered  under  ' '  Shrinkage  of  Corn. ' ' 


PRICES  BY  MONTHS,  1904  to  1913 
PRICES  BY  MONTHS,  1885  to  1903 
RECEIPTS  BY  MONTHS,  1S04  to  1913 
RECEIPTS  BY  MONTHS,  1884  to  1903 


I 


FIG.  5.— Rye:  Average  Monthly  Price  and  Average  Monthly  Percentage  of 
Total  Annual  Receipts  for  the  Ten  Years  1904-1913;  also  Price  for  the  Previous 
Nineteen  Years  and  Percentage  Receipts  for  the  Previous  Twenty  Years 


1915] 


PRICES  AND  SHRINKAGE  OF  FARM  GRAINS 


21 


Attention  is  called  to  the  marked  similarity  in  the  two  curves  and 
in  the  two  graphs. 

With  wheat,  the  times  of  lowest  average  price  correspond  closely 
to  the  times  of  largest  average  receipts;  the  highest  average  prices 
with  the  months  of  lowest  average  receipts. 

With  oats,  also,  the  months  of  lowest  average  price  correspond 
closely  to  the  months  of  highest  receipts. 

The  prices  for  barley  during  the  last  ten  years,  and  for  rye  during 
both  periods,  show  a  marked  tendency  to  decrease  in  anticipation  of 
increased  receipts,  which  is  not  the  case,  as  a  rule,  with  corn,  wheat, 
and  oats.  With  the  exception  of  the  summer  months,  the  tendency  in 
the  prices  and  receipts  for  barley  and  rye  is  about  the  same  as  for 
corn,  wheat,  and  oats;  that  is,  when  the  receipts  are  relatively  high, 
the  prices  are  low,  and  vice  versa. 

SHRINKAGE  OF  CORN 

Shrinkage  is  one  of  the  most  important  factors  in  the  handling 
of  the  corn  crop,  especially  if  the  grain  is  to  be  held  for  higher  prices. 

In  1903  the  Illinois  Station  began  an  experiment  to  determine  the 
rates  of  shrinkage  of  ear  corn.  Each  year  about  300  bushels  of  corn 
was  hauled  direct  from  the  field  and  placed  in  an  open  crib,  protected 
by  tight  roof  and  by  slat  sides,  where  it  was  left  until  the  next  crop 
was  gathered.  Four  times  each  month  the  crib  and  its  contents  were 
weighed  to  determine  the  shrinkage.  The  average  of  the  four  weigh- 
ings was  taken  as  the  monthly  average  from  which  to  compute  the 
shrinkage  of  the  corn.  The  results  are  presented  in  Table  4. 

TABLE  4. — AVERAGE  SHRINKAGE  OF  CORN  BY  MONTHS,  FOR  THE  YEARS  1903-1913,1 

URBANA,  ILLINOIS 
(Expressed  in  percentage) 


Month 

1903 

1905 

1906 

1907 

1909 

1910 

1911 

1912 

1913 

Average 
to  date 

Monthly 
average 

Nov 

g 

2.5 

1.06 

(-.07) 

1.81 

1.87 

1.33 

Dec.  .  . 

3.2 

5.5 

2.82 

2.18 

4.54 

1.17 

5.01 

1.65 



3.26 

1.93 

Jan..  . 

4.5 

6.7 

3.32 

4.52 

4.80 

2.70 

6.76 

2.98 

1.13 

4.16 

.90 

Feb.  .  . 

5.6 

8.6 

4.88 

6.30 

6.45 

3.83 

7.48 

3.90 

2.28 

5.48 

1.32 

Mar.  .  . 

6.9 

8.5 

7.25 

9.35 

9.19 

6.94 

7.58 

5.01 

1.85 

6.95 

1.47 

Apr..  . 

11.1 

10.0 

10.48 

12.37 

13.53 

8.73 

11.44 

7.19 

5.06 

9.99 

3.04 

May.  . 

15.4 

13.6 

11.86 

13.76 

13.74 

12.41 

17.10 

11.17 

8.85 

13.10 

3.11 

June  .  . 

17.9 

14.2 

13.20 

16.79 

15.69 

15.14 

20.31 

13.16 

11.25 

15.29 

2.19 

July.  . 

19.0 

15.3 

14.12 

18.02 

15.71 

16.78 

20.31 

13.62 

12.52 

16.15 

.86 

Aug.  .  . 

20.2 

15.1 

14.78 

19.00 

15.56 

16.92 

21.17 

13.51 

13.26 

16.61 

.46 

Sept.  . 

19.8 

15.2 

15.18 

20.10 

14.77 

15.42 

21.28 

13.70 

12.06 

16.39 

(-.22) 

Oct.  .  . 

19.8 

... 

15.52 

20.55 

14.91 

14.70 

21.64 

12.23 

13.03 

16.54 

.15 

Nov.  .  . 

19.9 

.  .  . 

15.10 

20.16 

15.41 

14.74 

21.58 

11.16 

12.38 

16.30 

(-.24) 

Dec. 

10.09 

'With  the  exception  of  1904  and  1908,  for  which  data  are  unavailable. 


22 


BULLETIN  No.  183 


[November, 


In  these  experiments  the  months  of  maximum  shinkage  were  found 
to  be  April,  May,  and  June.  After  January  there  was  a  gradual  in- 
crease in  the  shrinkage  rate  until  May,  and  from  that  point  on  there 
was  a  decided  decrease.  The  corn  reached  its  minimum  weight  in 
August. 

The  Ohio  Station  conducted  shrinkage  experiments  for  six  years, 
but  the  method  employed  was  so  different  from  that  used  by  the  Illi- 
nois Station  that  the  results  obtained  by  the  two  stations  are  not  di- 
rectly comparable.  Nevertheless,  in  a  general  way,  their  results  con- 
firm those  of  the  Illinois  Station.  In  discussing  the  Ohio  experiments, 
Williams  and  Welton  make  the  following  statement  :* 

To  determine  the  loss  of  moisture  in  ear  corn  month  by  month  thruout  the 
year,  100  pounds  were  stored  in  a  box  on  the  second  floor  of  a  corn  crib,  Novem- 
ber 1,  1908,  and  weighed  the  first  of  each  month  thereafter  for  a  year.  The  sides 
and  top  of  box,  being  made  of  wire  netting,  the  conditions  for  drying  out  were 
favorable.  Barring  a  few  exceptions,  the  shrinkage  for  each  year  has  increased 
gradually,  reaching  a  maximum  the  first  of  July,  August,  or  September,  depend- 
ing upon  climatic  conditions.  The  maximum  shrinkage  has  ranged  from  6.5  to 
24.75  percent,  and,  as  an  average  of  six  years,  is  19.96  percent.  This  has  occurred 
August  1.  As  the  cool,  moist  weather  of  fall  approaches,  the  corn  begins  to  take 
up  moisture,  hence  the  slightly  lower  percentage  of  shrinkage  in  September  and 
October. 

Iowa  has  carried  on  investigations  similar  to  those  reported  above 
for  Illinois  and  Ohio,  with  essentially  the  same  results. 

Since  the  investigations  of  Illinois,  Iowa,  and  Ohio  are  not  directly 
comparable,  and  since  the  work  of  Illinois  is  more  extensive  than  the 

TABLE  5. — PROFIT  OR  Loss  FROM  HOLDING  CORN 


Month 

Percentage 
shrinkage  up 
to  and 
insluding 
month    given 

Price  per 
bushel  neces- 
sary to  com- 
pensate    for 
shrinkage 

Actual     ten- 
year  average 
price 
1904-13 

Loss      per 
bushel  based 
on  November 
price 

Profit    per 
bushel  based 
on   February 
price 

November   .... 
December 

'3l26 
4.16 
5.48 
6.95 
9.99 
13.10 
15.29 
16.15 
16.61 
16.39 
16.54 

cents 

cents 
58.30 
55.70 
52.00 
52.50 
54.40 
57.20 
60.30 
60.30 
62.10 
64.20 
63.60 
60.50 

cents 

cents 

60.26 
60.83 
61.68 
62.65 
64.77 
67.09 
68.82 
69.53 
69.91 
69.73 
69.85 

4.56 
8.83 
9.18 
8.25 
7.57 
6.79 
8.52 
7.43 
5.71 
6.13 
9.35 

January   

February 

March     

.93 
1.61 
2.39 
.66 
1.75 
3.47 
3.05 

r-.m 

April     

May    

June   

July    

August  

September    .... 
October    . 

NOTE. — Buyers  may  take  more  corn  for  a  bushel  in  November;  if  so,  this  fact 
should  also  be  considered  by  the  farmer. 

'Ohio  Exp.  Sta.  Bui.  282,  Corn  Experiments.  1915. 


1915] 


PRICES  AND  SHRINKAGE  OF  FARM  GRAINS 


23 


others,  the  results  obtained  by  Illinois  are  used  as  a  basis  for  the  cal- 
culations which  appear  in  Tables  5  and  6. 

An  inspection  of  Table  5  shows  that  there  is  no  month  after  Novem- 
ber for  which  the  price  increases  sufficiently  to  compensate  for  shrink- 
age. In  fact,  the  price  decreases  until  January.  If,  however,  January 
or  February  is  taken  as  a  base,  prices  being  lowest  during  those 
months,  then  the  increase  in  price  during  the  succeeding  months,  up  to 
but  not  including  October,  more  than  compensates  for  shrinkage  alone. 

TABLE  6. — CORN:  PRICES  NECESSARY  EACH  MONTH  TO  COMPENSATE  FOE 

SHRINKAGE 

(Cents  per  bushel  based  on  November  price) 


November 
price 

To  compensate  for  shrinkage,  the  price  should  be: 

Dee. 

Jan. 

Feb. 

Mar. 

Apr. 

May 

June 

July 

Aug. 

Sept. 

Oct. 

40 

40.5 

41.3 

41.7 

42.3 

43.0 

44.4 

46.0 

47.2 

47.7 

48.0 

47.8 

41 

41.6 

42.4 

42.8 

43.4 

44.1 

45.6 

47.2 

48.4 

48.9 

49.2 

49.0 

42 

42.6 

43.4 

43.8 

44.4 

45.1 

46.7 

48.3 

49.6 

50.1 

50.4 

50.2 

43 

43.6 

44.4 

44.9 

45.5 

46.2 

47.8 

49.5 

50.8 

51.3 

51.6 

51.4 

44 

44.6 

45.5 

45.9 

46.6 

47.3 

48.9 

50.6 

51.9 

52.5 

52.8 

52.6 

45 

45.6 

46.5 

47.0 

47.6 

48.4 

50.0 

51.8 

53.1 

53.7 

54.0 

53.8 

46 

46.6 

47.6 

48.0 

48.7 

49.4 

51.1 

52.9 

54.3 

54.9 

55.2 

55.0 

47 

47.6 

48.6 

49.0 

49.7 

50.5 

52.2 

54.1 

55.5 

56.1 

56.4 

56.2 

48 

48.6 

49.6 

50.1 

50.S 

51.6 

53.3 

55.2 

56.7 

57.2 

57.6 

57.4 

49 

49.7 

50.7 

51.1 

51.8 

52.7 

54.  i 

56.4 

57.8 

58.4 

58.8 

58.6 

50 

50.7 

51.7 

52.2 

52.9 

53.7 

55.5 

57.5 

59.0 

59.6 

60.0 

59.8 

51 

51.7 

52.7 

53.2 

54.0 

54.8 

56.7 

58.7 

60.2 

60.8 

61.2 

61.0 

52 

52.7 

53.8 

54.3 

55.0 

55.9 

57.8 

59.8 

61.4 

62.0 

62.4 

62.2 

53 

53.7 

54.8 

55.3 

56.1 

57.0 

58.0 

61.0 

62.6 

63.2 

63.6 

63.4 

54 

54.7 

55.8 

56.3 

57.1 

58.0 

60.0 

62.1 

63.7 

64.4 

64.8 

64.6 

55 

55.7 

56.9 

57.4 

58.2 

59.1 

61.1 

63.3 

64.9 

65.6 

66.0 

65.8 

56 

56.8 

57.9 

58.4 

59.2 

60.2 

62.2 

64.4 

66.1 

66.8 

67.2 

67.0 

57 

57.8 

58.9 

59.5 

60.3 

61.3 

63.3 

65.6 

67.3 

68.0 

68.4 

68.2 

58 

58.8 

60.0 

60.5 

61.4 

62.3 

64.1 

66.7 

68.5 

69.2 

69.6 

69.4 

59 

59.8 

61.0 

61.6 

62.4 

63.4 

65.5 

67.9 

69.6 

70.4 

70.8 

70.6 

60 

60.8 

62.0 

62.6 

63.5 

64.5 

66.7 

69.0 

70.8 

71.6 

72.0 

71.8 

61 

61.8 

63.1 

63.6 

64.5 

65.6 

67.8 

70.2 

72.0 

72.7 

73.2 

73.0 

62 

62.8 

64.1 

64.7 

60.6 

66.6 

68.9 

71.3 

73.2 

73.9 

74.3 

74.2 

63 

63.8 

65.1 

65.7 

66.7 

67.7 

70.0 

72.5 

74.4 

75.1 

75.5 

75.3 

64 

64.9 

66.2 

66.8 

67.7 

68.8 

71.1 

73.6 

75.6 

76.3 

76.7 

76.5 

65 

65.9 

67.2 

67.8 

68.8 

69.9 

72.2 

74.8 

76.7 

77.5 

77.9 

77.7 

66 

66.9 

68.2 

68.9 

69.8 

70.9 

73.3 

75.9 

77.9 

78.7 

79.1 

78.9 

67 

67.9 

69.3 

69.9 

70.9 

72.0 

74.4 

77.1 

79.1 

79.9 

80.3 

80.1 

68 

68.9 

70.3 

71.0 

71.9 

73.1 

75.5 

78.3 

80.3 

81.1 

81.5 

81.3 

69 

69.9 

71.3 

72.0 

73.0 

74.2 

76.7 

79.4 

81.5 

82.3 

82.7 

82.5 

70 

70.9 

72.4 

73.0 

74.1 

75.2 

77.8 

80.6 

82.6 

83.5 

83.9 

83.7 

71 

72.0 

73.4 

74.1 

75.1 

76.3 

78.9 

81.7 

83.8 

84.7 

85.1 

84.9 

72 

73.0 

74.4 

75.1 

7i3.2 

77.4 

80.0 

82.9 

85.0 

85.9 

86.3 

86.1 

73 

74.0 

75.5 

76.2 

77.2 

78.5 

81.1 

84.0 

86.2 

87.1 

87.5 

87.3 

74 

75.0 

76.5 

77.2 

78.3 

79.5 

82.2 

85.2 

87.4 

88.3 

88.7 

88.5 

75 

76.0 

77.5 

78.3 

79.3 

80.6 

83.3 

86.3 

88.5 

89.4 

89.9 

89.7 

78 

77.0 

78.6 

79.3 

80.4 

81.7 

84.4 

87.5 

89.7 

90.6 

91.1 

90.9 

77 

78.0 

79.6 

80.3 

81.5 

S2.8 

85.5 

88.6 

90.9 

91.8 

92.3 

92.1 

78 

79.1 

80.6 

81.4 

82.5 

83.8 

86.7 

89.8 

92.1 

93.0 

93.5 

93.3 

79 

80.1 

81.7 

82.4 

83.6 

84.9 

87.8 

90.9 

93.3 

94.2 

94.7 

94.5 

80 

81.1 

82.7 

83.5 

84.0 

86.0 

88.9 

92.1 

94.4 

95.4 

95.9 

95.7 

24 


BULLETIN  No.  183 


[November, 


To  facilitate  finding  the  price  per  bushel  necessary  each  month  to 
compensate  for  shrinkage  when  holding  corn  which  ranges  in  price 
from  40  to  80  cents  per  bushel  as  an  average  for  November,  Table  6 
has  been  constructed,  based  on  shrinkage  data  included  in  Table  5. 

SHRINKAGE  OF  WHEAT  AND  OATS 

It  may  be  said  that  wheat  and  oats  shrink  comparatively  little 
after  the  grain  has  gone  thoroly  thru  the  sweat.  Where  small  grain 
is  stored  in  large  elevators,  it  is  estimated  that  the  shrinkage  runs 
from  1  to  2  percent  in  six  months. 

TABLE    7. — AVAILABLE    DATA    ON    THE    SHRINKAGE    OP    WHEAT    WHICH    MIGHT 
APPLY  TO  ILLINOIS  CONDITIONS 


Station 

Length   of 
storage 

Condition  of  tests 

Percentage 
shrinkage 

Ohio    
Michigan.  . 

3  years 
232  days 

14  samples,  thoroly  dry,  stored  in  bin  of 
wheat  for  nearly  1  year;  then  left  in  cor- 
ner of  bin  until  expiration  of  3  years.  .  .  . 

Wheat  dry  and  in  good  condition.  Bins  open 
at  top.  Soft  White  

0  to  4.94 
Av.  2.32 

.5 

Hard   Bed    

.1 

Michigan.  . 

10  days 

1500  bushels  stored  in  elevator  in  hard  and 
dry  condition  after  threshing.  (Christian 
Breisch  &  Co.,  Millers,  North  Lansing, 
Michigan)  

2.0 

TABLE  8. — AVAILABLE  DATA  ON  THE  SHRINKAGE  OF  OATS  WHICH  MIGHT  APPLY 
TO  ILLINOIS  CONDITIONS 


Station 

Length  of 
storage 

Condition  of  tests 

Percentage 
shrinkage 

Ohio    
Michigan  .  . 
Michigan  .  . 
Michigan.  . 

Sept.,  1892 
to 
March,  1893 
(about  6  mos.) 

Aug.    11,    1896 
to 
March   18,   1897 
(7  mos.  7  days) 

Sept.   13,  1897 
to 
March   1,  1898 
(5  mos.  17  dys.) 

Oct.  8,   1899 
to 

May  10,  1900 
(7  mos.  2  dys.) 

54   varieties    aggregating   4243    Ibs.,   re- 
cleaned,  hung  in  ordinary  bags,  in  ar- 
tificially warmed  rooms  

1.00 

.21 

1.61 

2.00 

3.40 

100   bushels   binned,   without   recleaning, 
1    hour    after    threshing.      Dry    condi- 
tions, but  wet  once  with  rain  while  in 
shock      

Stored  in  sheep  barn 
806  Ibs.  International  oats 

550  Ibs.  New  Marine  oats 

1038  Ibs.  stored  in  tight  bin 
ment  Station  barn          .... 

in  Experi- 

NOTE. — Data  in  Tables  7  and  8  are  taken  from  Mich.   Exp.   Sta.   Bui.   191, 
Shrinkage  of  Farm  Products,  by  C.  D.  Smith.    1901. 


1915]  PRICES  AND  SHRINKAGE  OF  FARM  GRAINS  25 

The  chief  causes  of  shrinkage  of  wheat  and  oats  stored  on  the 
farm  are  rats,  mice,  and  granary  insects.  When  small  grains  are 
held  over  from  threshing  time  until  the  following  year,  one  may 
count  very  safely,  under  normal  conditions,  on  a  shrinkage  of  not 
more  than  1  or  2  percent;  and  when  the  grain  is  very  dry  when 
threshed,  the  subsequent  gain  by  absorption  of  moisture  in  damp 
weather  may  amount  to  as  much  or  more  than  the  normal  shrinkage. 

The  fact  that  grains  fluctuate  in  weight  according  to  the  tempera- 
ture and  humidity  of  the  atmosphere,  is  brought  out  by  a  study  of 
Table  4  (see  August  to  November)  and  by  the  following  results  re- 
ported for  other  experiments: 

Hilgard,1  of  California,  found  that  when  wheat  and  oats  were 
placed  in  air  saturated  with  moisture,  the  gain  in  weight  at  64.4°  F. 
was  as  follows : 

Oats  19.8  percent  (18  days) 

Wheat    18.8  percent  (14  days) 

The  increase  in  all  cases  was  very  rapid  at  first ;  in  fact  half  the 
total  increase  occurred  during  the  first  twenty-four  hours.  After  that, 
the  rate  of  absorption  decreased  slowly  until  the  thirteenth  or  four- 
teenth day,  when  a  sudden  increase  occurred  due  to  growth  of  mold' 
on  the  grains. 

In  the  same  experiment  Hilgard  found  that  when  air-dry  grain 
was  exposed  to  artificially  dried  air  at  the  same  temperature  (64.4°  P.) 
for  18  days,  the  loss  in  weight  was  as  follows: 

Oats   9.3  percent 

Wheat    6.2  percent 

Sanborne2  found  that  even  in  the  dry  climate  of  Utah,  wheat 
gained  slightly  in  weight  during  winter  storage. 

Harris  and  Thomas3  report  that,  contrary  to  popular  opinion, 
there  is  a  gain  of  2y2  to  41/£>  percent,  instead  of  a  loss,  in  the  weight 
of  small  grain,  like  wheat  and  oats,  during  the  fall  after  harvest. 
They  found  that  in  every  case  the  grain  weighed  less  at  threshing  time 
than  at  any  other  time,  and  that  there  was  a  gain  in  weight  during 
the  winter  and  a  loss  during  the  summer.  While  these  data  may 
not  apply  to  Illinois  conditions,  they  show  that  small  grains  which 
may  be  very  dry  when  threshed,  take  up  moisture  thereafter,  if  the 
humidity  is  high,  thus  gaining  in  weight. 

Reported  in  Mich.  Exp.  Sta.  Bui.  191. 
^Reported  in  Mich.  Exp.  Sta.  Bui.  191. 
"Utah  Exp.  Sta.  Bui.  130. 


26 


BULLETIN  No.  183 


[November 


Having  determined  the  months  of  highest  average  prices  for  wheat 
and  oats  (see  Figs.  2  and  3),  the  question  naturally  arises  whether 
these  crops  can,  as  a  rule,  be  held  with  profit  for  higher  prices.  The 
question  is  answered,  with  respect  to  shrinkage,  in  Table  9,  assuming 
in  one  case  that  the  grain  be  marketed  after  threshing  in  August, 
and  in  the  other  that  it  be  stored  until  the  following  year,  when  a 
shrinkage  of  1%  percent  may  be  counted  on. 

TABLE  9. — GAIN  FROM  HOLDING  WHEAT  AND  OATS  FOR  HIGHEST  PRICE 
(Cents  per  bushel) 


Crop 

Ten-year    average 
price  for  August 

Price  necessary  to 
compensate  for 
1.5  percent 
shrinkage 

Highest  ten-year 
average  price 

Gain  by 
holding   for 
highest 
price 

Wheat   .  . 
Oats  

92.3 
37.8 

93.7 
38.4 

106.3  May 
43.4  May-June 

12.6 
5.0 

Considering  the  ten-year  period,  it  would  seem  to  be  profitable, 
so  far  as  shrinkage  alone  is  concerned,  to  hold  small  grain  until  the 
time  of  highest  prices ;  but  there  are  other  factors,  such  as  conveniences 
in  making  delivery,  condition  of  roads,  cost  of  labor  and  storage,  losses 
by  rats  and  mice,  and  by  insects  (weevil,  etc.),  so  local  in  character 
that  only  the  individual  farmer  can  give  them  proper  consideration. 


j 


UNIVERSITY  OF  ILLINOIS-URBANA 


